What has been published and why is it significant?
The UK Government has published a new policy paper entitled "Northern Growth Strategy: Case for Change". This isn't a full strategy, with this expected to follow in the Spring, but it does set out clear reasons for intervention and what the Government would like to achieve in the North moving forward. The paper is specifically focused on the North of England - a geography home to 16 million people with an economy that supports 8.1 million jobs and a £476 billion contribution to UK GVA. In the paper, the Government notes that the North has major potential but productivity and growth rates are still too low and lagging other parts of the country such as London.
The paper is significant in announcing a strong commitment to driving growth in the North, in particular through investment in Northern Powerhouse Rail. The North has long faced underinvestment in a variety of areas, including in infrastructure - and the Government says in no area moreso than transport. The plans announced are designed to lift living standards across the North, boost connectivity, and to deliver on the Government's number one mission: to grow the economy. The timescales for delivery do, however, remain long.
What has been announced?
The Case for Change sets out the economic context of the North, it's key challenges, and opportunities across the Industrial Strategy IS-8 sectors. It also highlights how the North has been at the forefront of ongoing devolution in England, and how this will be of great importance moving forward in realising economic growth.
The biggest announcement intended to help drive future growth is the commitment to Northern Powerhouse Rail – a proposal first conceived in 2014 by then‑chancellor George Osborne. The Government has pledged it will "take NPR forward and develop it in partnership with local leaders on the basis of clear and committed funding." Up to £45 billion of gap funding has been confirmed by the Government to deliver the programme over the coming decades, equating to a portion of the total anticipated cost of the scheme. £1.1 billion funding has been confirmed over the current Spending Review period, while construction works are expected in the 2030s and 2040s.
More widely, the policy paper gives indications of what to expect when a full plan is announced, including tailored interventions and foci across a Northern Growth Corridor to support greater growth and higher productivity.
What is Northern Powerhouse Rail and what does it set out to achieve?
Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) refers to planned transformational rail investment in the North of England. The initiative has evolved since the term was first used in 2014. . Initially, the route was planned to include a new high-speed line from Liverpool to Warrington, before connecting to a now-scrapped HS2 tunnel onto Manchester Piccadilly and upgraded lines through to cities such as Leeds, Sheffield and Hull. However, previous Governments had cut back these plans, before this week's announcement committing to NPR.
It has also been indicated that future plans could include an improved link between Manchester and Birmingham, acting as a replacement to the now defunct HS2 proposals, but this is expected to be two decades away.
The Government has said the plans will "drive the biggest travel upgrade in the North in a generation". The plan is targeting greater productivity and growth across the North, with improved journey times and better reliability for connecting those travelling around the region. Ensuring strong connectivity - both by public transport and by road - can play a significant role in enhancing access to economic opportunities, improving collaborations and supporting the movement of skilled workforces. While the plans are some way off from being realised, they offer a fresh opportunity for enhancing connectivity. More widely, the plans recognise some of the challenges faced by the region and show a clear aim to help deliver infrastructure and improvements - in a region that has lost a planned HS2 link in recent years and long experienced less investment and much slower journey times than the South of England.
What comes next and what could the plans mean for local areas?
More announcements are expected to follow with a Plan for the North anticipated this Spring. Local leaders in the North have indicated that work will start immediately with Government on developing detailed plans and business cases for a new Manchester - Liverpool railway, with construction planned for the 2030s/2040s. If realised, the plans could support positive impacts for people across large parts of the North through enhanced connectivity, improved quality of life and more, while contributing to national economic growth.
The latest announcements have come in the context of an increased focus on pan-Northern collaboration between Mayors (e.g. through the Great North) and other leaders over recent years, and plans for a Northern Investment Summit to help showcase the region on the global stage this Spring. The region continues to lead in devolution which is expected to bring more powers to local leaders, including through established authorities and with the recent formation of a County Combined Authority in Lancashire and confirmed devolution plans in Cumbria and Cheshire. A planning policy steer to support more development around stations could also see NPR plans aligning with changing patterns of housing development, benefiting workers as commuting between cities in the North becomes more viable.
At GC Insight we work across the North through the planning of investments, developing business cases and funding bids, preparing economic impact assessments, designing strategy and evaluating of public and private sector programmes. To find out more about our work, get in touch with our team.
