Ahead of Growth Outlook 27, we are reflecting on lessons from previous editions and emerging findings for 2027. Growth Outlook analyses business growth potential at local authority level across the UK for the year ahead. Entering its fourth year in 2027, our flagship publication is designed to provide a comprehensive national picture. Behind the scenes, our team are researching and visiting many of the locations with the strongest growth potential to understand what is driving their growth. In the days following the Chancellor's Autumn Budget and reinforcement of the Government's ambition to deliver growth in every postcode, this work provides a timely opportunity to consider what places can learn from one another.
Many datasets and rankings focus on historic performance or specific sectors, limiting their ability to identify growth opportunities comprehensively. We developed Growth Outlook to compare the relative growth potential of businesses in local places across the UK using robust, regularly updated data. That approach needs to reflect a diverse business base: businesses operate in both urban and rural areas and span sectors from the foundational economy to emerging technology.
With increased responsibilities to drive growth and a challenging environment for economic development, local places need evidence to inform their decisions. Growth Outlook helps them learn from initiatives elsewhere by identifying and sharing best practice across the UK. It often spotlights places that have significant growth potential in the data but fall under the radar, highlighting powerful initiatives that create the conditions for growth. As a social enterprise, we are committed to helping places use these insights to make better-informed decisions that support greater positive impacts.
Historic performance does not necessarily indicate whether a business will grow in the future. Too often, datasets only look backwards, a limitation made more important by the rise in episodic growth patterns, where growth occurs in bursts rather than steadily. Growth also means different things for different businesses, so the methodology needs to assess different types of businesses using measures relevant to them.
Growth Outlook assesses business growth potential using three measures: the share of businesses in an area expected to achieve high growth on the metric most relevant to each individual business; the average value of those businesses; and the risk associated with them. By focusing on the granular details of each business, weightings and detailed checks, we bring these measures together to form a comprehensive national ranking covering all (upper/single-tier) local authorities.
The score is then complemented by classifications for each place, which inform suggested strategies for the year ahead. This moves the analysis beyond a ranking to make the insights more meaningful and actionable for local places.
Growth Outlook looks at the likelihood of businesses in local places achieving high growth in the next 12 months, rather than measuring economic output. Achieving business growth is vital to local economies: it can support employment, deliver social value and contribute to wider economic benefits, such as through investment and tax revenues.
Growth Outlook's scoring is not based on a series of innovation metrics. While those metrics can be useful for specific purposes, they can overlook other types of growth. They also often show significant activity in only a small number of local areas, leaving many places with the potential to thrive outside the picture.
Growth Outlook continues to show that the spread and scale of growth differ across the UK between regions, within combined authorities and local authorities, and even within high streets. These differences do not mean that growth potential is confined to a few places. Real growth opportunities for businesses can be found in every place, and the right tools help identify them. Growth Outlook has helped to spotlight those opportunities, providing insights at the national through to hyper-local level.
The emerging picture for 2027 combines a continuing challenge with reasons for optimism. The share of businesses with growth potential has fallen over recent years amid a challenging environment for most businesses, and that trend looks set to continue. Yet Growth Outlook 27 will also show reasons for optimism on other metrics and in how places are working to drive growth. Our engagement with some of the locations with the strongest business growth potential reveals common threads, particularly broader approaches that connect skills, planning, business support and other areas. When Growth Outlook 27 launches in January, we look forward to sharing more about these approaches alongside insights for every part of the UK.
Growth Outlook 27 launches on 20 January 2027 at an event with over 100 economic development leaders from across the UK. In the meantime, explore the previous edition for insights into business growth potential across the UK: download Growth Outlook 26.
